African economies will forego a significant part of the direct, indirect and catalytic benefits of air traffic services in Africa if African airlines are not equipped, literally, to take their share. By way of comparison, see the Oxford Economics report Explaining Dubai’s Aviation Model: while aviation’s direct contribution to Dubai’s GDP is expected to be about US$10.5 billion in 2020, its total contribution to GDP – including indirect and catalytic benefits – is expected to be US$45.4 billion (32% of GDP).
If Africa’s cities become mere destinations for non-African carriers, the future potential of African skies will be enjoyed in large part outside of Africa (foreign airline owners, aircraft/engine investors, lessors, lenders and maintenance shops). Any prospect of recapturing a significant portion of the value that is habitually lost to the continent will be forgone. Meanwhile, the case for CAFE is neither a call to protectionism nor an endorsement of African ownership: it is not expected to negatively affect the evolution of airline consolidation.
